The Dunning Kruger Effect: A Chance To Reflect On Oneself

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thecrownsown
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The Dunning Kruger Effect: A Chance To Reflect On Oneself

Post by thecrownsown » Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:39 pm

The Dunning-Kruger effect, named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University, occurs where people fail to adequately assess their level of competence — or specifically, their incompetence — and thus consider themselves much more competent than everyone else. This lack of awareness is attributed to their lower level of competence robbing them of the ability to critically analyse their performance, leading to a significant overestimation of themselves. In simple words it's "people who are too ignorant to know how ignorant they are".

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ssessments


First of all...we are all guilty of this to some extent. Some of us...more then others. But in the search for information on such a vast array of topics that Preparedness covers, its quite easy to use google or a variety of hearsay and convince oneself they are knowledgeable or even an expert. Its a dangerous pitfall, and important to recognize.

When searching out information on pandemics, what are your sources? Are they experts in the field? Are you an expert in a field and can speak or critique on a particular subject...or are you a victim of the Dunning-Kruger effect? Can you even recognize when it occurs? Its easy for a private to criticize the actions of a General when they neither know all the facts, or have all the information at hand.

Outdoor survival? EMP? Medicine? Vehicles? Food and Nutrition? Weapons and Self Defense? Security? How much do you think you know vs. how much you actually know? What is your expertise, and what is something you've pieced together that may or may not be true...simply based on your own personal cognitive bias?

Its disheartening to see so many narratives on topics which have little merit if any. And in lieu of searching out legitimate answers we form ill educated opinions and settle in the comfort that is justifies our personal views.

As preppers...we are doomed to face the Dunning Kruger effect perpetually. And make no doubt, i am very guilty of this as well. So pot calling the kettle black is completely justified. There are to many facets of our world that relate to what we do as preppers. However, to become more effective preppers...if we can develop the skills to weed out the erroneous, the opinions and narratives created and instead listen and absorb what experts have to share...I think we will all be the better for it. And in turn, more effective at preparing for disaster with the right tools at hand.


https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738

Clarence
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Re: The Dunning Kruger Effect: A Chance To Reflect On Oneself

Post by Clarence » Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:16 pm

Yes indeed guilty as charged.
It can be hard to know if your right or not. Can’t count how many times I had a hunch, put it aside because I felt I wasn’t qualified and then bang, I was right, or the reverse where I think I am right, but wrong

As people who try and prepare for this or that, I have to say an open mind is essential, we are learning so much about different things. Due to time, mental capabilities...I can only take in so much on the art of gardening, electronics... so we “try” and grasp new things and make them work.

Be open to the fact we don’t know it all and the rest should work it’s way through. Hopefully without to much pain or loss in the process. In the end, there’s Little choice but to try

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Denob
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Re: The Dunning Kruger Effect: A Chance To Reflect On Oneself

Post by Denob » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:09 pm

Also guilty as charged!
I often have to remind myself that I should know what I don't know.
Seeking reliable sources is tough though...often we tend to believe a source because they say what we want to hear.

Clarence
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Re: The Dunning Kruger Effect: A Chance To Reflect On Oneself

Post by Clarence » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:29 pm

Here’s the thing. An expert can be indeed an expert. BUT dumber then a sack of pumice when it comes to tieng their shoes or interactions with other professionals.

Let’s assume I, as not being an expert on infectious diseases was to state that it would be a smart move to ENSURE you have valid contact info on everyone on board the plane coming from China. We knew China had a tiny problem so why not obtain the info and if need be for expediency, not worrry about tobacco, firearms and stun guns! Not some stupid self volunteer baloney. But everyone off boarding that plane, crew, maintenance.... ALL logged and with known contact details. Now remember, I am not health expert, just a dumb old citizen with some security background.

So the good people tell us they are working on contacting people, still haven’t reached everyone of course.
Today I watch the news and I did not save the clip so can’t let you see the joke for yourselves so I will have to paraphrase here, “they are focusing on those who were a few meters from buddy !” Because it’s droplets that are the issue. OK, cool with that my dear expert. Yep, only a few meters from buddy! Insane. Guessing due to poor initial measures they can’t track people but were lucky to get a few near him and are putting a happy spin on their dropping the ball and hope no one clues in.


Now, not an expert here but how longs the flight from China to Toronto, 15 hours...? Plus the boarding and de board times right! Are the experts telling us that buddy never left his seat to stretch his legs, go to the bathroom???? Wow, talk about one real big and tough bladder! Let’s for snots and giggles assume he may have taken one , ONLY ONE IN 15 HOURS! Did he take the mask off that he was allegedly wearing, you know, wash his face ( likely a bit sweaty and stressed from holding his balder for some time), freshen up, comb his hair...? Scratch his nose and put mask back on, brush his teeth...

We hear it’s spread by droplets. Ok, did he perhaps cough into his hand (one can only hope, versus on the door in the washroom) and then open the washroom door, touch the back or corner of seats as many people do as they walk down the isle, touch overhead compartment...pat a kids head in a friendly gesture, what about take a glass of water from steward? Wow, held his bladder, never left seat, drank or ate anything, that boys some super heroe! you get the idea right.

Well if you and I can get it, and we are not health experts, why the flip, can’t the expert? It’s because any expert or subject matter expert is what? That’s right, a subject matter expert ( supposedly, remember not everyone in the class graduates with a 98, some may just barely make the grade or are only there due to some push from a parent...) Are they really all that good with such important decisions. Do they not only make mistakes about their subject but not think like some other half intelligent person about all or at least some of the influencers.

Here’s WHO finally clueing into the obvious. Thank you captain/ doctor obvious
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/who-decla ... -1.4789826

A door knob could see this train wreck coming. People play with words, they are afraid of losing their jobs, bribes, blackmail, promotions, are told to stand down for political reasons ( same reasons as just stated) and the list of reasons why professionals drop the ball all the time is long and it’s not just because the call was a difficult one.

So by all means have brain surgery by a brain surgeon but if the brain surgeon has the shakes , smells of gin, can’t remember your name.... then it may be wise to ask for a different expert.

So that’s a short list of many contradictions between the experts and some really wild statements from the alleged experts.
Rub those rabbits feet folks because if we escape this one, it will be with some good work and a good measure of dumb luck
Last edited by Clarence on Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

thecrownsown
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Re: The Dunning Kruger Effect: A Chance To Reflect On Oneself

Post by thecrownsown » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:42 pm

Denob wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:09 pm
Also guilty as charged!
I often have to remind myself that I should know what I don't know.
Seeking reliable sources is tough though...often we tend to believe a source because they say what we want to hear.
im stealing your last paragraph and using it. Its about the most intelligent thing ive heard all day.
https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738

Nagol
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Re: The Dunning Kruger Effect: A Chance To Reflect On Oneself

Post by Nagol » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:45 pm

I’m sure I’m guilty as well, but I’d like to think I’m aware enough to mitigate much of it.
I don’t consider anything as absolute let alone my expertise and always look for a minimum of 2 credible sources before assuming the veracity of a “fact”. This current virus is a good example. I’ve used 12 gigs in the last 4 days verifying claims. That’s 12 gigs without video content, sourcing studies and information from 3rd party sources who are considered leaders in respective fields.

In general, I’ve learned to keep my mouth shut unless I can provide sources for my claims. A holdover from university maybe. At least I got something out of it. I also hold onto the opinion that there is always something else to learn and everyone has something to teach. If I ever doubt myself, my attitude or that I’m blinding myself to possibilities, I discuss my thoughts with someone else and keep an open mind. I’ve done that at least once a day while considering my reaction to this corona scare. I engage in dialogues and debate as often as possible as it’s an excellent way to explore possibilities I may not have considered or disregarded. While I will play out my arguments with maybe a bit of over exuberance I always take the time to consider opposing views... my wife would disagree. It’s in her nature. Lol

Especially today with anyone and everyone feeling the need to share their opinion and “personal reality”, it’s far too easy to fall into such traps.
If you keep nurturing a drive for information and knowledge, I’ve found it’s easier to keep and “even keel”, just avoid echo chambers(no easy feat when your a prepper).

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